“Odds Slide: Fed May Be Less Eager to Cut Rates Again”
- Neil Caron
- 3 days ago
- 2 min read
November 13th, 2025 | Market Insights | Presented by ReadySetLoan™️
Markets were brimming with optimism that the Fed would cut short-term rates in December. Just a week ago, that probability was as high as ~91%. Now, those odds have dropped to around ~70% as inflation remains stubborn and internal dissent grows. This change is sending ripples through mortgage markets and borrower expectations.
Why the optimism is cooling
Even though there was a recent rate cut, some Fed officials are emphasizing caution. Concerns about inflation and the labor market have caused some policymakers to push back, suggesting things are still “modestly restrictive.”
Here are the key shifts:
Internal dissent: Some regional Fed leaders dissented on the recent rate decrease, signaling that further cuts may not be guaranteed.
Inflation pressure: Inflation remains above target, meaning the Fed may delay additional easing until there is more confidence that inflation is sustainably under control.
Lower cut probability: Traders and bond markets have adjusted their expectations meaningfully. What seemed almost certain a week ago is now more uncertain.
What this means for mortgage borrowers in Connecticut
Borrowers in Connecticut should take this shift as a signal to reexamine assumptions — rate cuts might not come as quickly as hoped.
Timing matters more than ever: Because expectations have shifted, waiting on a rate cut could be risky.
Rates may not drop much: Even with cuts, long-term mortgage rates depend on other factors — bond yields, inflation expectations, and lender margins.
Be proactive: If you find a rate that fits your budget, consider locking it. Markets can reprice downward or upward fairly quickly.
Local affordability remains critical: Connecticut home prices and regional costs (taxes, insurance, etc.) amplify the impact of any rate change, good or bad.
🐷 RSL Piggy Points
December rate cut odds dropped from ~91% to ~70% amid inflation concerns and internal Fed dissent.
Some Fed officials view policy as still modestly restrictive, meaning further cuts are not guaranteed.
Borrowers should not assume cuts will continue on autopilot.
Connecticut borrowers should consider acting rather than waiting.
Local housing costs mean even small rate changes matter a lot in Connecticut markets.
Neil’s Take 🎤
“The market is adjusting fast — what looked nearly certain just days ago is now more uncertain. For Connecticut borrowers, this means staying nimble is more important than waiting for headlines to bring opportunity.”— Neil Caron, Area Manager at CMG Mortgage
🐽 Snout-Out: The RSL Perspective
At ReadySetLoan™️, we track not just the headlines — we track what really matters for borrowers. The Fed may be taking a pause despite expectations, but that doesn’t halt the home loan market. For Connecticut homebuyers and refinancers, readiness means locking sensible rates, understanding the full cost of borrowing, and being prepared for shifts in market sentiment. Whether you’re refinancing in affluent suburbs or buying in commuter towns, we help turn market uncertainty into strategic opportunity.
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