The spring housing market is still stretching its legs, but could there be opportunities for savvy buyers? According to recent data, the unsold inventory of homes nationwide is 28% higher than this time last year. While new listings are attempting to gain momentum, overall home sales remain slightly behind last year’s pace.
Market Trends: A Mixed Bag for Buyers and Sellers
Pending home sales inched up slightly but are still trailing behind last year’s numbers.
New listings saw their biggest jump since September, indicating sellers are entering the market.
List prices are rising, yet sales prices have remained stagnant.
Despite these movements, a significant portion of listings are being withdrawn from the market. These are homes that don’t receive offers and are taken off the market, which limits inventory growth but suggests pent-up seller demand that may reappear later in the year.
Shadow Inventory & Bargain Opportunities
This withdrawal trend suggests a hidden inventory—homes that sellers want to offload but are unable to. With the pending-sale-price-to-list-price ratio declining, buyers appear to be waiting for deals. If you’re a homebuyer this spring, opportunities may exist where sellers are willing to negotiate.
The Role of Interest Rates in Market Movement
Last year, mortgage rates peaked in May at 7.5%. This year, they have eased slightly, hovering around 6.6%. If this trend continues, demand may increase, potentially lifting sales beyond 2024’s pace. However, history suggests significant sales growth may only occur if rates drop closer to 6%.
Home Prices: A Delicate Balance
Median pending home sales price: $389,900 (up 2.6% from last year)
Active market listings price: $435,000 (up 1.2% for the week, barely above 2024)
Newly listed homes price: $435,900 (up 3.7% from last year)
While home price forecasts for 2025 remain positive at a projected 3.5% increase, weak demand and economic uncertainty could push prices downward in some regions.
Inventory & Listings Growth
New listings volume increased significantly this week, reaching 76,000 total homes listed.
Inventory levels are now at 642,000 single-family homes nationwide.
States like Texas and Florida have higher unsold inventory compared to pre-pandemic levels, offering buyers more choices and reducing upward pressure on prices.
Price Reductions: A Key Indicator
One of the best ways to gauge market trends is through price reductions:
33.6% of active listings have reduced their prices.
This trend signals that sellers are adjusting to weaker demand.
If mortgage rates continue to decline, price reductions may slow.
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